The I-Team issued a correction on the story about Judge Jerry Tao’s work attendance after being contacted by his nameless lawyer. Did it help? [I-Team]
MGM Resorts is wising up and moving toward mediation with shooting survivors. [Forbes]
The Supreme Court upheld a jury award giving Gordon & Rees over $250,000 against a former client with unpaid fees. [Law360-sub. req’d]
Here are Ralston’s predictions for tomorrow’s election? Any predictions of your own? [TNI]
Looks pretty accurate. How about the Tarkanian/Susie Lee congressional race? Does Tark finally win one?
As to the Stiglich prediction, I would draw everyone's attention to a couple posts toward the end of Friday's thread, that predict Harter to win. I'm not sure I agree with them as I can't imagine someone with no money toppling a NSC incumbent who has raised like over $800,000.
But those posts make a pretty strong case that, despite that huge disparity in funds, that Harter still has an enormous name recognition advantage among the general public.
When your opponent burns money on too-late media that no one sees, strategically placing signs in the most populated county in the state may be enough to win. We'll see. I don't think it's disputed that the money Stiglich raised hasn't really gone to effective advertising. Where has it gone? No idea.
To: 10:48–the high name recognition would not be based on judges in Family Court receiving much publicity, as they don't.
It would be based largely on the fact this particularly judge has run quite a lot. So, that obviously increases his name recognition significantly–at least in Clark County.
Guest
Anonymous
November 5, 2018 5:56 pm
Danny Tarkanian is the Washington Generals of Nevada politics. It's hard to understand why the GOP keeps burning up nominations on him. He will lose Tuesday, and Wednesday morning will begin plotting which office he will seek in 2020. No Senate or Gov that year, so maybe he will take a stab at unseating Congresswoman Lee.
Good point. On the other hand, so was Matt Harter (see above). Tarkanian has name recognition. Who is Susie Lee (other than someone anointed by Harry Reid)? I cannot tell you a single thing Susie Lee has done in the community. Remember infamous is still 75% famous.
Guest
Anonymous
November 5, 2018 6:00 pm
Hi Judge Harter. I don't think you're going to win on name recognition alone. After all, your name is not "Laxalt." While I could be wrong (I often am), I don't think the general voting public has even a half a clue when it comes to electing judges, and many skip those races altogether.
I suspect name recognition matters less than you'd think in judicial elections. Stiglich has some slick ads with the state's most popular governor in recent history backing her. Plus she's already on the court. Methinks that carries the day.
I don't think you're wrong. I'm not an attorney and I haven't worked in a law office for some years and dropped most of my legal networking contacts so I was very interested in what everyone here had to say about the judicial candidates. Then I filtered that info down to family and friends so they at least knew what key words to include in a Google search. Pretty much everyone I know had no clue how decide which judicial candidate to vote for.
Guest
Anonymous
November 5, 2018 7:07 pm
To: 10:02. 9:27 here again. No, I'm not Judge Harter. If I were, I would not have predicted that I would lose, and reference the huge fundraising disparity as the main reason for such result.
That said, I agree with your points about the relative lack of interest or knowledge as to the general public's approach to judicial races. And I have seen a couple Stiglich ads. But I still think that with Harter's name recognition, it will be a lot closer than people expect.
But, some would say that if he loses it does not really matter how close he came.
Guest
Anonymous
November 5, 2018 7:28 pm
Sisolak will win.
Duncan.
Stiglich
Tao
Rosen
Horsford
Susie Lee
Kate Marshall
Mary Kay Him this
James Dean Leavitt
Cegavske
Yes on all ballot iniatives, except no on 3.
I hope I am wrong on Stiglich.
Agreed. Harter could win. Never give the voting public too much credit. They pay little or no attention to judicial races.
Most voters have not seen the incumbent's political ads., but they have seen many of Harter's signs. And I think many will vote straight name recognition on races like this that they don't care about and have not thought about.
I hope the sheep out there will come to their senses and vote republican. The country is in the best condition since the 1960s. Hillary, Beto, Aaron, Pocahontas, Obama, Sisolak, Alec Baldwin, Pelosi, Pete Davidson, and the rest of your democrat leaders are a disgrace. Wake up! Save America! Vote republican!
@ 11:57: I agree with you that the hate machine needs to be stopped (historical reference: see Germany (1928-1934)). I, however, disagree that the current entity using the name "Republican Party" is the same entity that produced some of the nation's greatest leaders. Somehow, somewhere the GOP was hijacked and is now controlled by individuals that do not share the historic beliefs and values of the GOP.
The opposition party is no better choice. The greatest hope for the nation is for either the individuals of the former GOP to grow a backbone and retake their party, restoring it to its time honored beliefs and values, or break-off as a group forming a "new" party representing those beliefs. As the other side was also taken over by it's extreme margin, I would believe that a portion of that party would join the "new" party, giving it enough votes to be relevant.
I will say that the Democrats are as clueless about who should Democratic leaders as Republicans are. If the Democrats put Nancy Pelosi and Stenny Hoyer back in leadership and think that was the mandate from the people that is coming down tomorrow, they did not listen very closely and should not even unpack those boxes because their stay in the majority will be short. The mandate coming tomorrow is not for Democratic gridlock as we have known it; it will be for change.
Serious question to 12:36. Who do you think hijacked the Republican Party and how did they do it? Honestly, not being a jerk here. I'm just curious what you think made the Republican party vulnerable to being taken over by people who don't share the real GOP values.
@ 4:27; That is a tough question to answer as I believe it was the end result of factional infighting that occurred over more than a generation, resulting in a series of takeovers for limited duration by various factions. All of the factions effectively used essentially the same tactic, the use of narrow wedge issues to divide and conquer the party to achieve majority status.
Looking back, the party was generally homogeneous until the 1964 election with the Goldwater splinter. The existing party power structure survived that challenge but it gave rise to the use of wedge issues.
The party tried move to a compromise footing with consensus type candidates, until Reagan again resurrected a large coalition to govern. Part of that coalition included Jerry Falwell and the Moral Majority (an organization dedicated to specific wedge issues). Reagan was committed to the concept of a tent big enough to house all groups, however, the various factions over time became committed to a zero-sum strategy resulting in factional infighting.
Reagan was able to hold his grand coalition together, but during the H.W. Bush era, the factional fighting became uncontrollable. Groups like the Moral Majority were so committed to their specific wedge issues (social issues) that they decided that if they could not control those issues they would rather destroy the Republican vehicle than to allow a compromise on their specific issues. That decision ultimately cost H.W. Bush re-election as the vast number of that faction simply stayed home and refused to vote rather than supporting H.W. without their agenda items becoming policy. A side note: The 3rd party candidacy of Ross Perot further harmed H.W.'s re-election as it siphoned additional votes from him, however, Perot actually represented a different faction of the Republican coalition than the Moral Majority faction.
In the 1996 election, the traditional Republican leadership attempted rebuild the party with an eye towards minimizing the factionalism. They nominated an elder statesman, Bob Dole, as a compromise candidate. The effort failed.
In 2000, the factionalism again broke-out into the open. This time, however, the use of wedge issues became to politics of first choice, both intra-party, as well as, against the opposing party. Karl Rove was the master of the use of wedge issues to divide and conquer groups, setting them to battle against each other. He also mastered the use of low blows and deceptive tactics (e.g. Willie Horton ads). The playbook devised by Karl Rove, as it has evolved by the next generation of political consultants, is unfortunately what has been adopted as the norm in current political trends.
Following the Rove playbook, the Republican party was then overtaken by the Tea Party faction (primary focus of fiscal restraint). The takeover continued the break-up of the party along faction lines. During the Tea Party movement era, a separate faction also developed and splintered off from the Reagan coalition, the Ron Paul faction (Libertarian focused).
Donald Trump successfully recognized the factional nature of the party, the factional nature of the nation following the Great Recession with it's extended and anemic economic recovery and the pent-up anger among the population. That anger was related to many causes, socially, economic, generational, societal, etc. He then used the Rove playbook to develop wedge issues to set the various factions and interest groups to war with each other using racial, class, generational and other wedge issues as the flashpoints.
In his efforts, he also adopted many of the same tactics used in Germany in the 1929-1934 period (scapegoat targets, false allegations, etc.)
While the how of the takeovers is fairly easy to answer the who is a more complex question that is not easily answered as it has been a fluid concept as various factions gain the upper-hand in control of the party, rather than the coalition concept that preceded the infighting.
Guest
Anonymous
November 5, 2018 11:20 pm
Anyone watching the two items up on the ADKT today at the Supremes?
Guest
Anonymous
November 6, 2018 2:50 am
Has anyone worked for Lewis Brisbois? Any comments welcomed thanks.
I can only tell you what I've seen of them from the other side. There are a couple of partners there who are decent enough to deal with as OC. There are others who are horrible/borderline psycho. In general it seems like a sweatshop for associates. Think Alverson, Taylor.
My predictions:
– Laxalt (cringe)
– Rosen (barely, expect litigation)
– SOS: Cevgaske
– Treasurer: Beers
– Controller: Knecht
– AG: Duncan
– Cadish
– Stiglich
– Q1 passes
– Q2 passes
– Q3 fails (but barely)
– Q4 passes
– Q5 fails
– Q6 passes
Looks pretty accurate. How about the Tarkanian/Susie Lee congressional race? Does Tark finally win one?
As to the Stiglich prediction, I would draw everyone's attention to a couple posts toward the end of Friday's thread, that predict Harter to win. I'm not sure I agree with them as I can't imagine someone with no money toppling a NSC incumbent who has raised like over $800,000.
But those posts make a pretty strong case that, despite that huge disparity in funds, that Harter still has an enormous name recognition advantage among the general public.
Lolz at the idea that any family court judge has an enormous name recognition advantage over anybody.
When your opponent burns money on too-late media that no one sees, strategically placing signs in the most populated county in the state may be enough to win. We'll see. I don't think it's disputed that the money Stiglich raised hasn't really gone to effective advertising. Where has it gone? No idea.
To: 10:48–the high name recognition would not be based on judges in Family Court receiving much publicity, as they don't.
It would be based largely on the fact this particularly judge has run quite a lot. So, that obviously increases his name recognition significantly–at least in Clark County.
Danny Tarkanian is the Washington Generals of Nevada politics. It's hard to understand why the GOP keeps burning up nominations on him. He will lose Tuesday, and Wednesday morning will begin plotting which office he will seek in 2020. No Senate or Gov that year, so maybe he will take a stab at unseating Congresswoman Lee.
Good point. On the other hand, so was Matt Harter (see above). Tarkanian has name recognition. Who is Susie Lee (other than someone anointed by Harry Reid)? I cannot tell you a single thing Susie Lee has done in the community. Remember infamous is still 75% famous.
Hi Judge Harter. I don't think you're going to win on name recognition alone. After all, your name is not "Laxalt." While I could be wrong (I often am), I don't think the general voting public has even a half a clue when it comes to electing judges, and many skip those races altogether.
I suspect name recognition matters less than you'd think in judicial elections. Stiglich has some slick ads with the state's most popular governor in recent history backing her. Plus she's already on the court. Methinks that carries the day.
I don't think you're wrong. I'm not an attorney and I haven't worked in a law office for some years and dropped most of my legal networking contacts so I was very interested in what everyone here had to say about the judicial candidates. Then I filtered that info down to family and friends so they at least knew what key words to include in a Google search. Pretty much everyone I know had no clue how decide which judicial candidate to vote for.
To: 10:02. 9:27 here again. No, I'm not Judge Harter. If I were, I would not have predicted that I would lose, and reference the huge fundraising disparity as the main reason for such result.
That said, I agree with your points about the relative lack of interest or knowledge as to the general public's approach to judicial races. And I have seen a couple Stiglich ads. But I still think that with Harter's name recognition, it will be a lot closer than people expect.
But, some would say that if he loses it does not really matter how close he came.
Sisolak will win.
Duncan.
Stiglich
Tao
Rosen
Horsford
Susie Lee
Kate Marshall
Mary Kay Him this
James Dean Leavitt
Cegavske
Yes on all ballot iniatives, except no on 3.
I hope I am wrong on Stiglich.
I agree with you on all of the above, except Stiglich. I think Harter will win. The signs have it.
Agreed. Harter could win. Never give the voting public too much credit. They pay little or no attention to judicial races.
Most voters have not seen the incumbent's political ads., but they have seen many of Harter's signs. And I think many will vote straight name recognition on races like this that they don't care about and have not thought about.
Who the hell keeps talking about Harter's signs? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!
Is 3:39 Harter's sign guy?
I designed them. We got the pattern off of QVC.
Holthus, sorry to the perfectionists on the blog.
I hope the sheep out there will come to their senses and vote republican. The country is in the best condition since the 1960s. Hillary, Beto, Aaron, Pocahontas, Obama, Sisolak, Alec Baldwin, Pelosi, Pete Davidson, and the rest of your democrat leaders are a disgrace. Wake up! Save America! Vote republican!
We need to stop the Republican hate machine before more people get hurt.
@ 11:57: I agree with you that the hate machine needs to be stopped (historical reference: see Germany (1928-1934)). I, however, disagree that the current entity using the name "Republican Party" is the same entity that produced some of the nation's greatest leaders. Somehow, somewhere the GOP was hijacked and is now controlled by individuals that do not share the historic beliefs and values of the GOP.
The opposition party is no better choice. The greatest hope for the nation is for either the individuals of the former GOP to grow a backbone and retake their party, restoring it to its time honored beliefs and values, or break-off as a group forming a "new" party representing those beliefs. As the other side was also taken over by it's extreme margin, I would believe that a portion of that party would join the "new" party, giving it enough votes to be relevant.
Alec Baldwin and Pete Davidson are democrat leaders huh? Because they are on SNL?
I will say that the Democrats are as clueless about who should Democratic leaders as Republicans are. If the Democrats put Nancy Pelosi and Stenny Hoyer back in leadership and think that was the mandate from the people that is coming down tomorrow, they did not listen very closely and should not even unpack those boxes because their stay in the majority will be short. The mandate coming tomorrow is not for Democratic gridlock as we have known it; it will be for change.
Lol. . . looks like the Russian MAGA bots have branched off from Twitter and are lurking on the LVLB.
I, for one, am voting strictly Republican so that Pete Davidson fails in his quest to lead our great country.
Serious question to 12:36. Who do you think hijacked the Republican Party and how did they do it? Honestly, not being a jerk here. I'm just curious what you think made the Republican party vulnerable to being taken over by people who don't share the real GOP values.
Not 12:36 but I blame Karl Rove. All goes back to this obsession with campaigning on single issues like addition.
*abortion not addition. That's quite the opposite, autocorrect.
@ 4:27; That is a tough question to answer as I believe it was the end result of factional infighting that occurred over more than a generation, resulting in a series of takeovers for limited duration by various factions. All of the factions effectively used essentially the same tactic, the use of narrow wedge issues to divide and conquer the party to achieve majority status.
Looking back, the party was generally homogeneous until the 1964 election with the Goldwater splinter. The existing party power structure survived that challenge but it gave rise to the use of wedge issues.
The party tried move to a compromise footing with consensus type candidates, until Reagan again resurrected a large coalition to govern. Part of that coalition included Jerry Falwell and the Moral Majority (an organization dedicated to specific wedge issues). Reagan was committed to the concept of a tent big enough to house all groups, however, the various factions over time became committed to a zero-sum strategy resulting in factional infighting.
Reagan was able to hold his grand coalition together, but during the H.W. Bush era, the factional fighting became uncontrollable. Groups like the Moral Majority were so committed to their specific wedge issues (social issues) that they decided that if they could not control those issues they would rather destroy the Republican vehicle than to allow a compromise on their specific issues. That decision ultimately cost H.W. Bush re-election as the vast number of that faction simply stayed home and refused to vote rather than supporting H.W. without their agenda items becoming policy. A side note: The 3rd party candidacy of Ross Perot further harmed H.W.'s re-election as it siphoned additional votes from him, however, Perot actually represented a different faction of the Republican coalition than the Moral Majority faction.
In the 1996 election, the traditional Republican leadership attempted rebuild the party with an eye towards minimizing the factionalism. They nominated an elder statesman, Bob Dole, as a compromise candidate. The effort failed.
In 2000, the factionalism again broke-out into the open. This time, however, the use of wedge issues became to politics of first choice, both intra-party, as well as, against the opposing party. Karl Rove was the master of the use of wedge issues to divide and conquer groups, setting them to battle against each other. He also mastered the use of low blows and deceptive tactics (e.g. Willie Horton ads). The playbook devised by Karl Rove, as it has evolved by the next generation of political consultants, is unfortunately what has been adopted as the norm in current political trends.
Following the Rove playbook, the Republican party was then overtaken by the Tea Party faction (primary focus of fiscal restraint). The takeover continued the break-up of the party along faction lines. During the Tea Party movement era, a separate faction also developed and splintered off from the Reagan coalition, the Ron Paul faction (Libertarian focused).
Donald Trump successfully recognized the factional nature of the party, the factional nature of the nation following the Great Recession with it's extended and anemic economic recovery and the pent-up anger among the population. That anger was related to many causes, socially, economic, generational, societal, etc. He then used the Rove playbook to develop wedge issues to set the various factions and interest groups to war with each other using racial, class, generational and other wedge issues as the flashpoints.
In his efforts, he also adopted many of the same tactics used in Germany in the 1929-1934 period (scapegoat targets, false allegations, etc.)
While the how of the takeovers is fairly easy to answer the who is a more complex question that is not easily answered as it has been a fluid concept as various factions gain the upper-hand in control of the party, rather than the coalition concept that preceded the infighting.
Anyone watching the two items up on the ADKT today at the Supremes?
Has anyone worked for Lewis Brisbois? Any comments welcomed thanks.
Don't.
You're welcome.
6:50 here. Why not?
I would rather work there than with Tim Kelley.
I can only tell you what I've seen of them from the other side. There are a couple of partners there who are decent enough to deal with as OC. There are others who are horrible/borderline psycho. In general it seems like a sweatshop for associates. Think Alverson, Taylor.